Is the Developer Market Oversaturated? A Reality Check for Aspiring Engineers |

A common question has been put to me: what's the opinion on the oversaturation of the developer market due to yearly graduated software engineers and self-taught individuals? Is there still a demand for software engineers? It's a good question and one I hear all the time. Here's the actual answer based on an understanding of the whole market.

Don't Worry About an Oversaturated Market

The short answer is, don't worry about the software engineering market; there's not going to be a shortage. What's happening now—and I'm writing this in October 2024—is what appears to be a downturn in the market in terms of hiring developers. This is due to a couple of key factors.

First, during the pandemic lockdowns, many tech companies were hiring like crazy. They were doing what some people would call "defensive hires," bringing on anybody they could get their hands on in terms of coding talent because they were worried they wouldn't be able to find talent later. They went through this crazy phase of hiring, and now that the dust has settled, they realize they've over-hired. Now, they're just trimming the fat and adjusting for reality. This is a normal cycle that has happened several times before.

Another aspect of this is that during this frenzy, they were hiring people who weren't really that competent. A lot of boot camp graduates and people who just did a bunch of courses and copied projects for their portfolios got hired. The companies were so worried about missing out on talent that they hired all these people.

The "Coder Beer Goggles" Effect

What's happened is that they've calmed down. It's like they've gotten off the sauce; they're no longer drunk. And when you're not drunk, you don't make stupid decisions. The publicly traded companies and all the tech firms had "coder beer goggles" on. They were so desperate, and like a drunk person, they thought, "that coder looks amazing." Then the next day, they sober up and realize their mistake.

That's what's happening right now. They're just sobering up and realizing that they hired a bunch of people who weren't qualified to begin with. This is why you hear a lot of people saying they're not hiring "entry-level" devs anymore. In reality, these weren't entry-level devs; they were individuals who were still learning and didn't really know what they were doing.

You have to understand something: when you're hiring developers, or any talent really, it's expensive to bring on new people. It costs the employer money, not just in salary but in training you up to be productive. In fact, many hiring managers and HR professionals say the number two thing they look for when hiring tech people is interpersonal skills and professionalism. The current downturn isn't really affecting people who have skill and talent; it's affecting those who probably needed more training before getting a job in the first place.

The Future is Bright, Even with AI

If you look at all future projections for where the market is going, it's just positive for anybody who's technically inclined, even in the age of AI. Anyone who tells you AI is going to replace coders can almost certainly be identified as not being a professional developer.

Anybody who knows anything about writing code knows that the actual writing of boilerplate code—which AI can do, and I encourage you to use it for that—is just one part of the process. This is especially true in small to medium-sized business (SMB) development, where as a developer, you'll be wearing many hats.

A Developer's Varied Responsibilities: - One day you may be working on the front end. - The next, you might be doing some Python scripting to automate a server. - Another day, you could be installing a WordPress instance.

Your work is all over the place. All this decision-making—what libraries to choose, what languages to use, what hosting company to select—are things AI cannot do. AI can assist you, but it cannot replace you.

So, to end this aside with regards to AI: don't worry about it. Embrace it. Learn to use it. I have seen technologies in the past that had a far greater impact on development than AI has to date, and I don't see AI having that level of impact for a long time. The reason you hear about AI so much is because it affects many industries in a marginal way, so in aggregate, it's pretty powerful. It's affecting copywriters, robotics, accounting, software development, video production, and all kinds of industries. But it's not replacing anybody yet, with a few exceptions.

I'd say that AI is now making you 10 to 20% more productive as a software developer, depending on your specialization. I would be using AI to write my queries because those can be a pain, or to generate boilerplate code for some layouts. But we've had templates for years.

Historical Tech Shifts Were More Disruptive

As I said, I've seen other technologies that predate AI but had a far, far greater impact.

Page-Based Web Development: This paradigm shift happened in the mid-to-late 90s. We went from code-centric front-end design (like Perl/CGI) to page-based models (like ASP, classic ASP, JSPs). This was a total game-changer for developer productivity. I was one of the first in the world to adopt ASP. I rebuilt an early social media app that another company spent over a year building with the traditional, code-centric method. Using the new page-based paradigm of ASP, I was able to rebuild their comprehensive prototype from scratch in just 30 days. This wasn't because I was a great programmer; it was because the new paradigm was thousands of times more productive.
Content Management Systems (CMS): Another example is WordPress. Before WordPress, magazine sites were done with static HTML, maybe with some client-side or server-side includes to replicate consistent items. But it was essentially a manual process. When content management systems came in around '95-'96, all the web designers were freaking out, thinking it was the end of web design. They were wrong. It just changed the game, shifting what we did and how we did it. The move from static site development to using a CMS like WordPress, Drupal, or Joomla was a much, much bigger change to the web development landscape than AI has been or will be for the foreseeable future.

How to Succeed in Today's Market

To conclude, yes, right now there might be a reduction in jobs because companies are cleaning house. They're not hiring people from bad boot camps or those who learned on their own with no guidance from just a few online courses. This is normal.

So what should you do? I always tell people the same thing over and over again: - Learn your fundamentals well. - Start building real sites for people. - Start taking on freelance contracts.

Even if you do two or three projects for free to get your hands dirty, your understanding of development will skyrocket. You'll be amazed at how much more you're going to learn. The problem is that a lot of people have imposter syndrome and are nervous about jumping into the market.

The great thing about coding, unlike other industries, is that if you make a mistake, it's no big deal. You fix it. That's why we have software versions like iOS 17.whatever—all those point releases are for fixing developer errors. So don't sweat making bugs in your code. Take on little projects for free where nobody is heavily invested, but you're learning a lot. That's how you're going to build your resume and get a job, not by doing endless tutorials.

Just like a boxer or an MMA fighter, the way you get good is by getting in the ring and fighting. You need to get out there and start building the real thing.